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Comparison between the UK and France. Data up to 12.4.2020

First, the graph that everybody sees. Absolute daily number of deaths (so, not <deaths per million>). No lag. Straight comparison.

Introducing ratio: deaths per million

Introducing lag in the absolute numbers. It is explained in the methodology. The lag in number of days, where all countries have 6 deaths per million.

Lag on the ratio

Cumulative, so no daily values. No ratio, no lag.

Introducing the ratio: deaths per million

Cumulative, absolute number, but with lags

Cumulative, ratio, with lags. Now, we see. This is also the part of the “main graph” that is used here.

Cumulative, ratio, with lags. Rolling moving average of 3 days.

Cumulative, ratio, with lags. Rolling moving average of 5 days.

This is the part of the “main graph”

Main conclusion: A little more focus on the last few days tell us that they both follow a very similar pattern, France being slightly worse. However, 4 out of last 5 days, France shows first signs of decline. If the UK does the same is open question. If not, the UK could surpass France in 4-5 days.

The slight decline in France may be due to the measures taken earlier. Given that one needs 4-5 days to show symptoms, and 10-14 days between first symptoms and death, in such cases, this looks about right. So, if current trend continues in both France and the UK, France could return below Italy soon, and the UK would remain ahead of Italy, and ahead of France.

Six countries comparison, France and the UK as ones above Italy, Italy and 3 below Italy.

Thank you!

Andreas Stalidis.