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{"id":182,"date":"2020-04-17T04:52:21","date_gmt":"2020-04-17T03:52:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/covid.antibaro.gr\/?p=182"},"modified":"2021-01-20T13:48:58","modified_gmt":"2021-01-20T13:48:58","slug":"huge-covid-19-deaths-may-have-been-missed-in-the-uk-reporting-bbc-video","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/covid.antibaro.gr\/research\/ukweekly\/","title":{"rendered":"Excess mortality in the UK & the US"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Update 19.1.2021<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US excess mortality around 400,000 in 2020, due to covid-19. Source<\/a> (NYT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source <\/a>– NYT<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$
Source<\/a> – Our World in Data<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$
Source <\/a>– CDC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Update 14.1.2021<\/strong> The **UK <\/strong>announced excess mortality rate for 2020. It was 14%, the highest since 1940 of the WWII [link:** BBC<\/a>]. The 14% excess deaths in 2020 is very high, despite covid-related deaths occurred in 9.5 of 12 months of the year, as first deaths were registered around mid-March. Total deaths in 2020 were 697,000, which is nearly 85,000 more than expected for the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
**Also, here is a detailed report by Public Health England on excess mortality<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n**
**Link with yearly number of deaths in Sweden<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n**
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
**Update 22.12.2020<\/strong>. Data up to week 50, i.e. 11th Dec 2020.** **Source of data<\/a> (Office for National Statistics, UK)<\/p>\n\n\n\n**
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$
Comparison between 2020 weekly deaths and previous 10 years (2010-19), including their average<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$
Officially record of covid-19 related deaths (blue) vs 2020 excess deaths vs 5-year average. The UK is most likely underreport covid-related deaths. The gap is around 12,000 deaths as of 27th Nov 2020.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
**Update 3.6.2020<\/strong>: ONS update up to week 21, i.e. end of 22nd May. It is estimated: <\/p>\n\n\n\n**
the difference between the surplus 2020 deaths from the 10y average, and the officially recorded covid-19 deaths to be around **23,300<\/strong>, and<\/li>**
the difference between the suprlus 2020 deaths from the max of each one of the previous 10 years, and the officially recorded covid-19 deaths to be around 11,400<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The officially recorded covid-19 deaths up to week 21 (22nd May 2020) was 36.393<\/strong>. So, in practice this comparison suggests that the real covid-19 related deaths could be **between 47,800 and 59,700<\/strong>, using either the max of each of previous 10 years, or the mean of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n**
**<\/p>\n\n\n\n**
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Below are previous updates on the same topic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
**Update 20.5.2020<\/strong>: ONS update up to week 19. <\/p>\n\n\n\n**
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Update 14.5.2020<\/strong>: ONS updates up to week 18. Look at the charts below estimating the difference between surplus deaths in 2020 compared to 10y avg, with official covid-19 deaths. Latest difference around 21,000!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
**New Update 29.4.2020<\/strong>: The UK government revised deaths by adding more than 4000, coming from care homes. See this BBC news article<\/a> for some information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n**
Update 29.4.2020<\/strong>: The FT editor Chris Giles says UK deaths to be revised from 21,678 (up to 28.4) to 44,000! This is based on the weekly data that ONS publishes, which have been discussed previously in this post. His tweets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
Based on the today's UK figures showing 260 people have died in hospitals with Covid-19, a cautious estimate of the number of UK deaths linked to coronavirus to date is

44,000

There will be a longish thread today on how to interpret this figure and tomorrow's ONS numbers

1\/<\/p>— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) April 27, 2020<\/a><\/blockquote>

Source <\/a>– NYT<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$
Source<\/a> – Our World in Data<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$
Source <\/a>– CDC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Update 14.1.2021<\/strong> The **UK <\/strong>announced excess mortality rate for 2020. It was 14%, the highest since 1940 of the WWII [link:** BBC<\/a>]. The 14% excess deaths in 2020 is very high, despite covid-related deaths occurred in 9.5 of 12 months of the year, as first deaths were registered around mid-March. Total deaths in 2020 were 697,000, which is nearly 85,000 more than expected for the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
**Also, here is a detailed report by Public Health England on excess mortality<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n**
**Link with yearly number of deaths in Sweden<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n**
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
**Update 22.12.2020<\/strong>. Data up to week 50, i.e. 11th Dec 2020.** **Source of data<\/a> (Office for National Statistics, UK)<\/p>\n\n\n\n**
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$
Comparison between 2020 weekly deaths and previous 10 years (2010-19), including their average<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$
Officially record of covid-19 related deaths (blue) vs 2020 excess deaths vs 5-year average. The UK is most likely underreport covid-related deaths. The gap is around 12,000 deaths as of 27th Nov 2020.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
**Update 3.6.2020<\/strong>: ONS update up to week 21, i.e. end of 22nd May. It is estimated: <\/p>\n\n\n\n**
the difference between the surplus 2020 deaths from the 10y average, and the officially recorded covid-19 deaths to be around **23,300<\/strong>, and<\/li>**
the difference between the suprlus 2020 deaths from the max of each one of the previous 10 years, and the officially recorded covid-19 deaths to be around 11,400<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
The officially recorded covid-19 deaths up to week 21 (22nd May 2020) was 36.393<\/strong>. So, in practice this comparison suggests that the real covid-19 related deaths could be **between 47,800 and 59,700<\/strong>, using either the max of each of previous 10 years, or the mean of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n**
**<\/p>\n\n\n\n**
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Below are previous updates on the same topic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
**Update 20.5.2020<\/strong>: ONS update up to week 19. <\/p>\n\n\n\n**
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Update 14.5.2020<\/strong>: ONS updates up to week 18. Look at the charts below estimating the difference between surplus deaths in 2020 compared to 10y avg, with official covid-19 deaths. Latest difference around 21,000!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
$\"\"$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
**New Update 29.4.2020<\/strong>: The UK government revised deaths by adding more than 4000, coming from care homes. See this BBC news article<\/a> for some information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n**
Update 29.4.2020<\/strong>: The FT editor Chris Giles says UK deaths to be revised from 21,678 (up to 28.4) to 44,000! This is based on the weekly data that ONS publishes, which have been discussed previously in this post. His tweets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
Based on the today's UK figures showing 260 people have died in hospitals with Covid-19, a cautious estimate of the number of UK deaths linked to coronavirus to date is

44,000

There will be a longish thread today on how to interpret this figure and tomorrow's ONS numbers

1\/<\/p>— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) April 27, 2020<\/a><\/blockquote>